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Wednesday, June 25, 2008

RBI hikes CRR by 0.5%

Reserve Bank of India hiked the Cash Reserve Ratio late on Tuesday evening by 0.5% ( or as the RBI will put it 50 basis points).

This is being seen as a part of the central bank's move to reign in the runaway inflation. This move will suck money out of the banking system and hence reduce liquidity. As a result, cost of money is expected to increase, in other words, interest rates are like to increase ( 'harden' as some would have it)

Under the circumstances, I would expect the markets to react negatively to this news Wednesday.

Monday, June 16, 2008

Wipro buys Motorola stake in JV WMNetServ

Wipro Technologies, a division of Wipro Limited has according to this report http://www.business-standard.com/common/storypage_c_online.php?leftnm=10&bKeyFlag=IN&autono=40051 bought out JV partner Motorola's stake in WMNetServ.

Capital Markets have shown interest in the development. It is expected that, the bourses will attach only as much significance as is proportional to the size and impact of the transaction.

While the news article claimed that "The stake held by Wipro was also not disclosed", the same however is in public domain.

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Am I missing Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyer's point ?

Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyer (henceforth SSSA for brevity's sake) believes that India "need to check the demand for oil by letting price rise. The refusal to do so is keeping demand artificially high. The subsidy for oil is also a subsidy for street pollution and congestion, and reduces the incentive to switch from private to public transport."

He further informs us that the petroleum ministry wants to raise the price of petrol by Rupees 10/litre and diesel by Rs 5/litre ( Subsequently the Govt. hiked petrol by Rs 5, diesel by Rs 3 and Cooking gas by Rs 50) to recover 50% of the under-recoveries.

Business Standard's Weekend supplement on Saturday 14 June 2008 informs us that petrol prices in Delhi is 50.56 (mind you this is because the National Capital is always treated with kid gloves) , Karachi is 42.38 Dhaka 38.74 Colombo 48.20 Kathmandu 49.97 ( all figures converted to INR).
http://www.newyorkgasprices.com/ informs that the most expensive gasoline in New York is today $4.67 a gallon. ( Converted, it is about INR 53 a litre, which is lower than the price that most ordinary Indians who live outside the NCR end up paying.)

If the price in India is higher than many other comparable parts of the world is the rest of the world also subsidising their petro products. Seems Unlikely. Please feel free to ping me and correct me if this is wrong.

If We are already paying more than a fair market price why should Indian citizens be subjected to much higher prices ?

This is not to say oil companies ought to suffer. Nor is this to an appeal to reduce duties. I just cannot see the logic in Mr. Aiyer's argument that we ought to increase prices to reduce consumption and demand which is "artificially high". Do you ?

Introspection!

We are all dead in the long term! therefore the idea of reaping rich dividends/value in the longterm wouldn't really appeal to most of us. And a more profound thought is the fact that all of us would like to make a quick buck even if we are to compromise on our risk appetite. It would only be cynical on our part to deny this and speak of prudent investment ideas, strategies, combinations and all that non-sense ( since there was never an intent ) in times where every other stock at todays given prices seem to be a steal in comparison to the not so distant past.
A majority i would presume...rather iam sure of are saddled with stocks that defied all logic and fundamentals to scale dizzy heights at their peak and more so on their way down. This is a common phenomena pertaining to stock markets and is a typical case of history repeating itself. The primary reason that can attributed to this apparent anomalous behaviour is nothing but Greed. The other important corralaries are Indiscipline, misinformation, blindeye towards fundamentals and ofcourse absolute disregard with respect to over leveraging.
I personally is of the opinion that even any one of the above mentioned ingredients can cause significant damage, a combination or even more( all put together) will only result in a complete rout. Ok. Most of us are aware & understand all of this. There comes the Q.
How and what is it that can make us practice the above mentioned virtues and at the same time make the desired money?
If i did have the perfect answer to this question... there wouldn't have been temples or churches! As i have always wondered.... the so called learned and wise men, the big institutional houses, the market movers, all of them have only measured opinions and advices to offer which again is never accountable and is ofcourse common folklore. So where do we seek the " REAL INFORMATION" that we are all desperately looking for?
I have a firm belief ... the answer lies within our own selves and a more closer picture can be evolved from the animal kingdom of whom we were once a part. It is simple understanding and no rocket science. Carnivores generally don't hunt the same pack or their equals. It is the largely populous and the weaker section i.e. the herbivores which are their fodder. Vice-versa the Minority ( carnivores-- The big institutions, HNI's, with large coffers ) will always make prey of the majority ( Herbivores-- All of us! ). Minority wins and rules! there is no escaping this fact.
So what exactly does this explanation mean? Is this all farce and only a way of extorting money from the weaker section? Yes it is but It isn't all that gloomy. The underlying fact is that it is a platform created for the minority and u will always be pawn in the game! But a pawn can prove to be more than a handful.. but again only at times...not always! So.. alike the Minority! without any concrete redressal to the actual and factual problem... i leave it stranded with some thought for all! will take it up from hereon!

Friday, June 13, 2008

Short if you are adventurous !

A listless day..... nifty traders exit 4485-4490..... Adventurous may take short positions at the same levels carrying to monday.

Inflation @ 8.75! See an upmove

Inflation @ 8.75! Nifty still hovering around 4475-4480..... Along expected lines..... Hopefully see an upmove....

IVR Prime and Sasken Communications

Buy & hold IVRPrime @ 220 for 3-4 trading sessions. 250+ target . Merryl lynch to increase stake. Information based.
Buy & hold Sasken comm. for 3-4 trading sessions @ 129. Expect 10-12% upside irrespective of mkt. conditions. News expected.
Book ur profits if it happens early and do not wait for the events to unfold. I repeat....Just book ur profits.

Buy Nifty @ 4500 ...

Buy initiated in nifty @ 4500 @ opening bell. Nifty after the first 100 min. of trading hovering @ 4475-4480. Hold. Aggressive traders may add further to existing positions at CMP. ( Current mkt price).

Friday the 13th! Beware....

Hi everybody!
All of us witnessed a stupendous pullback yesterday with a positive surprise from the weekly IIP numbers. Largely the mkt is still pretty weak and every small rise will only propel short positions... which again eventually will take the mkt up by way of shortcovering, as it did yesterday. Today will be a mixed day and movement expected on either side( as most analysts would blabber) isnt my kind of opinion and believe in sticking ones neck out and owning responsibility. Being my first item here... will go ahead and say its a buy on nifty at opening today! will try and keep it updated during the day.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Welcome to Nifty Trading Calls and Tips !

Welcome to Nifty Trading Calls and Tips !
We wish to bring you timely calls on the stock market in India. The National Stock Exchange and the Bombay Stock Exchange listed stocks will be our area of focus. More, specifically we will cover stocks that are in derivatives or F&O ( FnO) segment.

Happy Trading !


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